Whoa, how close is Deutsche Bank to causing ABSOLUTE HAVOC in the eurozone? At a capital ratio of just under 1.68%, DB is leveraged up to 60x and with a derivative exposure of over $72.8 Trillion, I think the technical term is “they’re f**ked”.
Finally, if anyone is still confused where the pain is headed next, here is a list from Morgan Stanley of all Euro banks with a Core Tier 1 ratio that is so low, that the banks will soon regret not raising more capital in the period of calm that the ECB’s LTRO bought them.
Also, one bank is missing from the list above: Deutsche Bank. CT1/TA: 1.68%. Oops.
That’s right – Deutsche Bank was so bad that it wasn’t even allowed to appear on a screen of Europe’s most undercapitalized banks – and we helpfully pointed out its true capital ratio of just under 2%, and an implied leverage of 60x!
According to FDIC Vice Chairman Tom Hoenig, Deutsche Bank is horribly undercaptialized.
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In other words, the slighest systemic shock in Europe and Deustche Bank gets it. And as Deutsche Bank goes, so does Germany, so does Europe, so does the world.
Immediately confirming Hoenig’s (and Zero Hedge’s) observations, was Deutsche’s prompt repeat that “all is well” and that “these numbers” are not like “those numbers.”
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Of course, DB’s lies are perfectly expected – after all it is a question of faith. So let’s go back to Hoenig who continues to be one of the few voices of reason among the “very serious people”:
Still, equity analysts said that while Deutsche Bank likely will meet regulatory capital requirements, its ratios look weak.
Hoenig pointed to the gain in Deutsche Bank shares in January on the same day it posted a big quarterly loss, because it had improved its Basel III capital ratios by cutting risk-weighted assets.”My other example with poor Deutsche Bank is that they lose $2 billion and raise their capital ratio. It’s – I don’t want to say insane, but it’s ridiculous,” Hoenig said. A leverage ratio is a better method to show a firm’s ability to absorb sudden losses, Hoenig says, and he has floated a plan to raise the ratio to 10 percent. He said the 3 percent leverage hurdle under Basel was a “pretend number.”
Opponents of using such a ratio say that it ignores the risk in a bank’s loan books, and can make a bank with only healthy borrowers look equally risky as a bank whose clients are less likely to pay back their loans. It also fails to take into account how easily a bank can sell its assets – so-called liquidity – or whether it is hedged against risk.
Still, equity analysts said that while Deutsche Bank likely will meet regulatory capital requirements, its ratios look weak.
But is there anything to really worry about? Well, as ZeroHedge put it….;-)
But just as we were about a year ahead with our warning of DB’s “off the charts” leverage, so we wish to remind readers that some time around June 2014, the topic of Deutsche Bank’s
$72.8 trillion in derivatives, or about 21 times more than the GDP of Germany
, will be the recurring news headline du jour.
Recall from April: “At $72.8 Trillion, Presenting The Bank With The Biggest Derivative Exposure In The World (Hint: Not JPMorgan)” which for those who missed it, we urge rereading:
Source: ZeroHedge
